Spatial modelling of sea level rise and extreme sea level exposure.

Southland District Council is committed to understanding how climate change will impact our communities, and has commissioned Great South to prepare a report on spatial modelling of sea level rise.

On 1 November 2023, Great South staff presented summary information about the modelling of sea level rise and extreme sea level exposure affecting parts of the Southland district to councillors in a workshop.

The sample maps in the summary presentation outline best and worst-case scenarios in year 2090 for six specific locations within the Southland district territorial authority - ĹŚraka Colac Bay, Curio Bay, Fortrose, Riverton Aparima, Oban, and Waikawa.

A best-case scenario for 2090 considers sea level rise, vertical land movement and mean high water spring (spring tides). The worst-case scenario adds to this extreme sea level resulting from a one-in-100-year storm event creating storm surge and wind waves.

The final report will project further scenarios for years 2130 and 2300, and will be peer reviewed before completion. The full report and peer review will be made public as soon as they are available. If you have any questions you can email

You can download the Powerpoint presentation here.

The Council workshop was recorded. It can be viewed on YouTube below.